Past, present and future
The global climate system consists of several interactive components. Along with internal variations, there are different factors that drive the climate, such as different intensities of solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and human activities ranging from land use to the burning of fossil fuels. In order to understand the climate system, climate research looks at the interaction of the different factors over time and space. In other words, NCCR Climate researchers analyse today's climate, study past climates and provide forecasts for the future. They're interested in the global processes and study regional and local effects.
The NCCR Climate highlights how the alpine region in particular is affected by global climate change. It examines the risks and possible effects while providing scenarios for the climate of the future. From what we know today, Switzerland's summers will become hot and dry and its winters damp and warm.
1000 A.D.The climate has always been subject to change due to the natural factors that drive it and the so-called natural variability. Today, in addition to these fluctuations, the human impact has become apparent. Several NCCR Climate research projects aim to determine the exact influence that humans have had on climate throughout the course of history. Through a collaborative effort, they are reconstructing Europe's climatic history over the past thousand years. Since there were hardly any weather stations before 1860, the necessary data are obtained from natural climatic archives such as glaciers, lake sediments and the growth rings of trees. Furthermore, documentary records on weather conditions are analysed. TodayThe climate changes over the past decades have never been so well documented. The NCCR Climate analyses these data using trend and process studies. The goal is to analyse the sensitivity of climate systems towards disturbances and to calibrate climate models using the measured data. In fact, the measured development in Switzerland is in agreement with outputs from computer models. For example, the trend of significantly warmer and damper winters observed on the northern side of the Alps should also continue in the future. Year 2100The reports from the UN's Climate Expert Committee IPCC forecast an average global warming of the climate between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius till the end of the century. Regionally however, the consequences of climate change are extremely variable. The Alps, for example, tend to be more sensitive to climate changes and on average might be more affected by them. Therefore, NCCR Climate researchers are developing high-resolution models that provide scenarios that closely reflect areas such as the Alps, which have specific climatic conditions. |
Swiss National Science Foundation.